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Turning to his boss and the Secretary of Defense, the Admiral inquired.
General Stone, Secretary Hattering?
At this, President Weisskopf spoke up.
That will not be necessary. Fred, I am afraid there is not much we can do
here explicitly other than stick to the explanation that we were not
involved& maybe floating Admiral Crowler s explanation would not be a bad idea.
In the mean time, let s continue with the briefing.
With the President s definitive word on the matter, further discussion was
unnecessary and Admiral
Crowler continued.
Thank you Mr. President. The agenda will be as follows. We are going to have
Tom Lawton review the infrared, electronic and signals data we received as a
result of Colonel Mendenhall s flight. Following this, we are going to look at
our projections of the capabilities of the new missile system that was fired
at our aircraft. Finally, we will discuss the ramifications of both the
shipyard data and the new missile systems on our current and future relations
with the PRC.
So, with that said, Tom, would you care to make your presentation?
Tom was well prepared. With enhanced photographs which were based on infrared
imaging and radar imaging, he showed the attendees the significant work going
on at the Tianma shipyards.
They are working three shifts and have a huge number of manual and technical
laborers preparing these four dry docks. Historically, at this facility, they
have had only two dry docks, and these were used predominantly for
shipwrecking. Bringing old hulks in and dismantling them for their metal and
wiring and anything else of value that could be obtained.
If you will direct your attention at these openings in the sides of each dry
dock, it is apparent that an intricate system of access tunnels are being
constructed which extend back to the surface several hundred meters away. Each
of them is in close proximity to a major transportation corridor, either rail
or vehicle.
The implication that they are ramping up for serious shipbuilding at these
facilities is clear& and in a way that will make it much more difficult for
either our satellites or other surveillance missions to determine what is
going on exactly once they begin.
Though no ships were present, each dry dock is capable of handling a vessel
800 feet in length and 100
feet wide; typical size for their container ships.
With respect to the signals and electronic data we analyzed, it is also clear
that those missile batteries and additional, lesser capable batteries have
been set up in very thick matrix around these shipyards, particularly for any
approach from the sea. They are clearly intent on defending this site.
With respect to the advanced missiles themselves, I have prepared a summary of
data regarding their performance against the HR-7 aircraft we had in the area.
Please refer to your handout and to the screen:
General: Guided, high performance Anti-Air
Guidance: Capable of multiple guidance points and terminal guidance
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Range: Fifty to Seventy Miles
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Ceiling: 140,000 ft.
Speed: Two stage, max speed Mach 4
We do not know if the missile is capable of self guidance once initial lock
on is obtained on the ground.
We must presume it can because their other high performance missile, the KS-2
certainly can. In addition, it is clear that the terminal guidance includes at
least infrared and probably includes radar.
At this point, General Livingston, The US Air Force Chief, spoke.
Excuse my interruption, Tom, but I want to emphasize something to everyone
here. These arevery capable missiles& perhaps as capable as our latest Patriot
missiles, although their performance against a true ballistic threat is
indeterminate. Somehow we need to determine their full capabilities, as well
as their numbers and production status. As it is, we know that they are one of
the most capable missiles, outside of our own, that we have encountered.
The meeting continued and two things were made very clear:
The Red Chinese were gearing up for serious shipbuilding at the Tianma
shipyards. Taking into account earlier CIA intelligence regarding the purpose,
and eventual military significance, of the projects, the speculation that the
Red Chinese were going to use those locations to build new carriers, or some
other military vessels, began to assume more and more credence.
It was clear that the Red Chinese had employed a new, highly capable missile
system in defense of these very shipyards, along with an entire multi-layered
defense of other, less capable systems. This information served as the
catalyst in reaching the determination that Tianma was in fact being converted
to accommodate extensive military operations.
President Weisskopf addressed the meeting as it was winding down, and as
Admiral Crowler sat down after the last agenda item.
Ok, I want to thank everyone for their fine input. We will go forward with
the Jimmy Carter mission early next month. I believe it is imperative, with
the creation of the CAS, and given my own conversation with President Jien
Zemin, that we gather as much intelligence as possible. Admiral Crowler, just
ensure, as we have discussed, that the Commander understands that at no time
can his boat encroach into internationally recognized territorial waters of
Red China. He is to accomplish his mission without doing so, or he is to
abort. General Stone, Admiral, is that understood?
Both men responded immediately with a definitive, Yes Sir.
With that, the President concluded.
Gentlemen, these are momentous and potentially dangerous times. Fred, we need
to do everything possible to bolster the morale, and the confidence, of our
allies and friends in the Pacific region, and to maintain civility with the
Red Chinese. Spare no effort to ensure that the foreign ministers from Japan,
to
Singapore, to Australia understand this. Pass the word confidentially to our
friends in the ROC.
Oh, and one more thing. Alan, I would like you to work with Fred at State and
Mike at CIA to
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coordinate a detailed review of events of the last few weeks in Iran. We have
not taken a hard enough look at that, in my opinion. I know there has not been
a lot of news emanating from there and little notice is being paid to what
news has been released but I want to know more about this Hasan
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